Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 103287.713587 108814.024710 114333.543352 120256.321186 126428.194517 132666.375091 139444.432470
2025-10-19 94228.392600 102676.275929 111342.326620 120885.811346 131089.457722 141660.877753 153430.126376
2025-10-26 87432.818241 97859.024972 108782.681191 121058.747524 134447.580498 148584.305882 164616.310290
2025-11-02 82374.879692 94296.946024 107010.291697 121539.912513 137647.910989 154920.754643 174804.779670
2025-11-09 77930.143046 91000.888369 105157.369452 121575.811896 140038.058223 160101.128734 183495.385528
2025-11-16 74953.635757 89086.846110 104606.218782 122839.788420 143599.508872 166422.609646 193332.412790
2025-11-23 71553.232121 86472.271076 103067.417785 122801.686173 145530.528084 170787.536802 200872.451864
2025-11-30 69544.511879 85319.272197 103071.768177 124412.188334 149245.173519 177104.265364 210589.600433
2025-12-07 67431.182078 83920.254107 102682.824027 125469.422182 152243.153517 182548.386322 219281.925309
2025-12-14 64918.807837 81929.904788 101495.593691 125494.066734 153955.986173 186448.876030 226152.616087
2025-12-21 62796.711890 80309.299186 100657.723512 125850.350069 155991.282421 190677.344316 233380.264667
2025-12-28 61635.568055 79787.552763 101075.924218 127657.206636 159713.090718 196870.517930 242926.332028
2026-01-04 60348.537931 79077.559432 101247.676187 129165.094129 163098.487237 202714.293391 252145.478143
2026-01-11 58780.729094 77962.488739 100879.206752 129979.558737 165626.766666 207536.911714 260173.720624
2026-01-18 57010.182460 76529.414251 100063.583350 130196.032190 167390.628206 211422.238440 267077.697009
2026-01-25 55496.218349 75363.637070 99528.648726 130714.144604 169489.674277 215693.907741 274449.576858
2026-02-01 53839.806507 73959.864510 98646.068458 130753.904673 170963.475783 219185.192202 280870.573273
2026-02-08 52888.733929 73425.232743 98824.279667 132095.853392 174035.819091 224627.027529 289691.634640
2026-02-15 51353.690584 72084.380076 97937.474848 132055.497518 175353.931819 227899.073757 295850.702699
2026-02-22 50684.718464 71849.791824 98440.917282 133764.688660 178862.573588 233883.421600 305383.993529
2026-03-01 49792.523742 71289.751568 98500.346918 134886.571693 181620.073865 238940.008117 313790.411529
2026-03-08 48469.886149 70117.875982 97732.539769 134912.722893 182962.564587 242220.502318 319988.555967
2026-03-15 47355.759594 69192.643197 97256.709823 135290.768028 184735.966040 246033.894822 326861.901514